Institutional Model

Commentary

3 potential market outcomes of the July tariff deadline

Upcoming tariff policy decisions could reshape global trade, as well as risk sentiment.

By: Anu Gaggar Brad Pineault

Updated: 7/2/2025

Key Takeaways

We anticipate three potential outcomes on or before July 8, with extensions of the previously announced pauses on tariff implementation appearing the most likely of the three.
A deal for a “universal” tariff could be the most positive scenario in terms of a market impact, although we’re not hearing much buzz about this possibility.
Some tariff uncertainty appears likely into the later half of 2025 and possibly beyond.

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3 potential market outcomes of the July tariff deadline

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