Institutional Model

Commentary

3 potential market outcomes of the July tariff deadline

Upcoming tariff policy decisions could reshape global trade, as well as risk sentiment.

By: Anu Gaggar Brad Pineault

Updated: 7/2/2025

Key Takeaways

We anticipate three potential outcomes on or before July 8, with extensions of the previously announced pauses on tariff implementation appearing the most likely of the three.
A deal for a “universal” tariff could be the most positive scenario in terms of a market impact, although we’re not hearing much buzz about this possibility.
Some tariff uncertainty appears likely into the later half of 2025 and possibly beyond.

Get the full white paper

3 potential market outcomes of the July tariff deadline

Next steps to consider

Asset Allocation Research Team (AART)

Access economic, fundamental, and quantitative analysis from our Asset Allocation Research Team.

Learn more

Asset Class Overview

Explore strategies and custom solutions across asset classes, designed to help you face your most complex challenges head on.

Learn more

Related insights

View all

What comes next after the U.S. tariff negotiation extension?

Balanced positioning may benefit investors amid increased trade uncertainty.

3 potential market outcomes of the July tariff deadline

Upcoming tariff policy decisions could reshape global trade, as well as risk sentiment.

For important information, see the full linked content.

1212518.1.0

D0D98437ED87449DA44A4F4B60AAA495

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This information is intended for the sole use of institutional investors. Retail investors and any other persons who are not institutional investors should not act or rely on this information.

Unless otherwise expressly disclosed to you in writing, the information provided in this material is for educational purposes only. Any viewpoints expressed by Fidelity are not intended to be used as a primary basis for your investment decisions and are based on facts and circumstances at the point in time they are made and are not particular to you. Accordingly, nothing in this material constitutes impartial investment advice or advice in a fiduciary capacity, as defined or under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 or the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, both as amended. Fidelity and its representatives may have a conflict of interest in the products or services mentioned in this material because they have a financial interest in the products or services and may receive compensation, directly or indirectly, in connection with the management, distribution, and/or servicing of these products or services, including Fidelity funds, certain third-party funds and products, and certain investment services. Before making any investment decisions, you should take into account all of the particular facts and circumstances of your or your client’s individual situation and reach out to an investment professional, if applicable.

Registered investment products (including mutual funds and ETFs) and collective investment trusts managed by Fidelity Management Trust Company (FMTC) are offered by Fidelity Distributors Company LLC (FDC LLC), a registered broker-dealer. Fidelity Institutional Asset Management (FIAM) investment management services and products are managed by the Fidelity Investments companies of FIAM LLC, a U.S. registered investment adviser, or Fidelity Institutional Asset Management Trust Company, a New Hampshire trust company. FIAM products and services may be presented by FDC LLC, a non-exclusive financial intermediary affiliated with FIAM and compensated for such services.