Institutional Model

Commentary

AART Inflation Quarterly Q3 2025

Tariffs have not led to meaningful cost pass-through to date

By: Collin Crownover

Updated: 7/21/2025

Key Takeaways

Recent U.S. inflation readings have increased since the low in April and most of the persistent inflation measures remain above 3%.
Headline inflation could become rangebound around 3% (above the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 2% target) into 2026, with upside risk from tariff hikes.
Core inflation above the Fed’s target has contributed to an environment of positive correlations between U.S. stocks and U.S. Treasury bonds, with implications for asset class diversification.

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AART Inflation Quarterly Q3 2025

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