Research

Secular outlook for global growth: The next 20 years

Slower economic growth is expected to result in less of a tailwind for equities

By: Dirk Hofschire Irina Tytell Jacob Weinstein
Updated: 7/28/2024
Key Takeaways

The Fidelity Asset Allocation Research team’s secular gross domestic product (GDP) growth framework is a proprietary, dynamic approach, serving as a foundation for developing long-term capital market assumptions for asset class returns.

  • Global growth is expected to be 2.1% over the next 20 years, down from 2.8% for the previous 20 years, with the United States averaging 1.8% annually and developing economies likely to register the highest GDP growth rates.
  • Due to AI and other secular trends boosting capex and public investment, we believe there may be potential upside to our base-case productivity estimates in some countries.
  • Asset allocation strategies that can be selective across a broad, global opportunity set may have the greatest potential to take advantage of future growth prospects.
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1. Sources: The United Nations and UN International Labour Organization, World Bank, OECD, 
Fidelity Investments (AART), as of 4/30/23.

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