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Secular outlook for global growth: The next 20 years

Slower economic growth is expected to result in less of a tailwind for equities

By: Dirk Hofschire Irina Tytell

Updated: 9/26/2025

Key Takeaways

The Fidelity Asset Allocation Research team’s secular gross domestic product (GDP) growth framework is a proprietary, dynamic approach, serving as a foundation for developing long-term capital market assumptions for asset class returns.
Global growth is expected to be 2.1% over the next 20 years, down from 2.7% for the previous 20 years, with the United States averaging 1.8% annually and developing economies likely to register the highest GDP growth rates.
Even though demographic constraints are set to dampen global growth prospects, other secular trends, including artificial intelligence technologies, may boost productivity in some countries.

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Secular outlook for global growth: The next 20 years

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1. Sources: The United Nations and UN International Labour Organization, World Bank, OECD,
Fidelity Investments (AART), as of 4/30/23.

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