Research

Secular outlook for global growth: The next 20 years

Slower economic growth is expected to result in less of a tailwind for equities

By: Dirk Hofschire Irina Tytell Jacob Weinstein
Updated: 7/28/2024
Key Takeaways

The Fidelity Asset Allocation Research team’s secular gross domestic product (GDP) growth framework is a proprietary, dynamic approach, serving as a foundation for developing long-term capital market assumptions for asset class returns.

  • Global growth is expected to be 2.1% over the next 20 years, down from 2.8% for the previous 20 years, with the United States averaging 1.8% annually and developing economies likely to register the highest GDP growth rates.
  • Due to AI and other secular trends boosting capex and public investment, we believe there may be potential upside to our base-case productivity estimates in some countries.
  • Asset allocation strategies that can be selective across a broad, global opportunity set may have the greatest potential to take advantage of future growth prospects.
Get the full white paper
Secular outlook for global growth: The next 20 years
Download PDF
Explore more on:
AART Asset allocation Capital market assumptions International

Next steps to consider

Quantitative Investing

Find out how a blend of human insight, data, and technology can help uncover opportunity for your clients.

Learn more

International Equity

International Equity

Discover new ideas for your clients’ portfolios with our full range of international equity funds.

Learn more

Portfolio Construction Solutions

Get ready to manage your client portfolios—and relationships—more effectively with Fidelity's powerful portfolio construction insights, tools, and solutions.

Learn more

1. Sources: The United Nations and UN International Labour Organization, World Bank, OECD, 
Fidelity Investments (AART), as of 4/30/23.

Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

1136462.2
81207E4F587C4B3095BA9339D5DC78DF