Institutional Model

Commentary

It’s possible we’re still in a long-term bull market

The current tariff-related uncertainty may be a notable drawdown within a multi-decade equity run.

Key Takeaways

Our Capital Markets Strategy Group believes we’ve seen three secular bull markets since 1949.
If the current bull market were to match the length of the previous postwar bulls (about 18 years), the S&P 500 might go through a pullback in 2025 but continue to rise through 2031 or 2032.
We cannot be certain that we’re still in a bull market, how long it may last if we are, and whether the S&P 500 will match the magnitude of its past moves. But neither did investors in the previous secular bulls.
Investors in those eras rode out more than a dozen pullbacks of 10% or more, growth and inflation concerns, headline risks, different rate environments, geopolitical issues, policy changes and more to benefit from the entirety of those secular bull markets.

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It's possible we're still in a long-term bull market

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