It’s possible we’re still in a long-term bull market
The current tariff-related uncertainty may be a notable drawdown within a multi-decade equity run.
- Our Capital Markets Strategy Group believes we’ve seen three secular bull markets since 1949.
- If the current bull market were to match the length of the previous postwar bulls (about 18 years), the S&P 500 might go through a pullback in 2025 but continue to rise through 2031 or 2032.
- We cannot be certain that we’re still in a bull market, how long it may last if we are, and whether the S&P 500 will match the magnitude of its past moves. But neither did investors in the previous secular bulls.
- Investors in those eras rode out more than a dozen pullbacks of 10% or more, growth and inflation concerns, headline risks, different rate environments, geopolitical issues, policy changes and more to benefit from the entirety of those secular bull markets.

Next steps to consider
Asset Allocation Research Team (AART)
Access economic, fundamental, and quantitative analysis from our Asset Allocation Research Team.
Learn more
Custom Investment Solutions
Discover how our investment solutions can be tailored to meet your unique goals and objectives.
Learn more
Outsourced CIO
Explore outsourced CIO solutions tailored to your needs, powered by Fidelity’s deep investment capabilities and proprietary research.
Learn more
For important information, see the full linked content.