Investing Ideas

U.S. jobs numbers: An economic warning or noise?

Why the employment data may not be signaling a cyclical economic change.

By: Brad Pineault Anu Gaggar

Updated: 9/30/2025

Key Takeaways

The record-breaking downward revision to August 2025 employment data has sparked recession concerns, but historical patterns suggest such revisions alone are not reliable predictors.
Slower job growth may reflect demographic and immigration trends—such as retiring baby boomers and reduced immigration flows—rather than cyclical economic deterioration.
Strong GDP growth, steady consumer spending, and healthy corporate earnings suggest the broader economy remains robust.
We highlight three indicators to watch that would lead us to revisit an otherwise bullish economic thesis.

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U.S. jobs numbers: An economic warning or noise?

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