Commentary

7 things investors should know about the evolving conflict with Iran

Investor uncertainty increased in the days following the U.S. and Israeli military campaign against Iran, which began on February 28.

By: Jacob Weinstein Michael Scarsciotti

Updated: 3/4/2026

Key Takeaways

Market volatility does not reflect a change in urgency, mindset or decision-making. The market in recent days has had an orderly tone to it—not one of panic.
Headline risk alone has been insufficient to drive material reallocations or positioning shifts. Many investors realize that, historically, negative market reactions based on geopolitics have tended to be short-lived. A recent Fidelity analysis concluded that a broad, aggregated set of geopolitical shocks from Pearl Harbor through the 2022 Russia–Ukraine invasion resulted in an average equity return over the following 12 months of about 8% (roughly the same as equities’ long-run annual average.)
On Wednesday, the U.S. said its navy may escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, if needed. In addition, the administration said it would insure tankers through the International Development Finance Corporation. U.S. crude fell on this news (near $74), down from about $78 on March 3.

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