Commentary

First Quarter 2026 Quarterly Business Cycle Update

International policies support global growth and the markets

By: Fidelity Asset Allocation Research Team

Updated: 1/15/2026

Key Takeaways

The U.S. demonstrated a mix of cycle dynamics, with solid mid-cycle activity and some areas of continued weakness in housing and labor markets.
The global business cycle remains constructive, with U.S. monetary and fiscal easing likely to continue in 2026.
The near-term outlook appears favorable for continued economic and business expansion.

Get the full white paper

Quarterly Business Cycle Update (Q1 2026)

Next steps to consider

Asset Allocation Research Team (AART)

Access economic, fundamental, and quantitative analysis from our Asset Allocation Research Team.

Learn more

Domestic Equity

Target your clients’ investment needs with our broad lineup of domestic equity solutions.

Learn more

Asset Allocation

Asset Allocation

Leverage Fidelity’s extensive analytical, research, and management capabilities to level up your asset allocation approach.

Learn more

Related insights

View all

First Quarter 2026 Quarterly Business Cycle Update

International policies support global growth and the markets

Outlook: Five forces that could shape markets in 2026

Fidelity’s Asset Allocation Research Team outlines key investment risks and opportunities for the year ahead.

AART Inflation Quarterly Q4 2025

Tariffs pass-through makes its way to consumers.

For important information, see the full linked content.

1082603.8

47887817E626408DA794C8624CFB803C

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Unless otherwise expressly disclosed to you in writing, the information provided in this material is for educational purposes only. Any viewpoints expressed by Fidelity are not intended to be used as a primary basis for your investment decisions and are based on facts and circumstances at the point in time they are made and are not particular to you. Accordingly, nothing in this material constitutes impartial investment advice or advice in a fiduciary capacity, as defined or under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 or the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, both as amended. Fidelity and its representatives may have a conflict of interest in the products or services mentioned in this material because they have a financial interest in the products or services and may receive compensation, directly or indirectly, in connection with the management, distribution, and/or servicing of these products or services, including Fidelity funds, certain third-party funds and products, and certain investment services. Before making any investment decisions, you should take into account all of the particular facts and circumstances of your or your client's individual situation and reach out to an investment professional, if applicable.

Registered investment products (including mutual funds and ETFs) and collective investment trusts managed by Fidelity Management Trust Company (FMTC) are offered by Fidelity Distributors Company LLC (FDC LLC), a registered broker-dealer. Investment advisory products and services are provided by FIAM LLC, or Fidelity Diversifying Solutions LLC (FDS), both U.S. registered investment advisers. FDS is also a CFTC registered commodity pool operator and registered commodity trading adviser. Products and services may be presented by FDC LLC, a non-exclusive financial intermediary affiliated with FIAM and FDS and compensated for such services.

Before investing have your client consider the funds', variable investment products', exchange-traded products', or 529 Plans' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or a summary prospectus, if available, or offering statement containing this information. Have your client read it carefully.

The use of the term "advisor(s)" throughout this site shall refer to both investment advisors and broker dealers as a collective term.