Commentary

Stagflation-light: A growing investment concern

Iran, energy markets, and the risk of re-accelerating inflation and slower growth.

By: Collin Crownover Jacob Weinstein

Updated: 4/7/2026

Key Takeaways

Inflation risks are rising, driven primarily by energy supply disruptions tied to Iran and global geopolitics.
The Fidelity AART team expects higher peak inflation than market consensus, and that inflation could rise above our assumptions if cost pressures broaden.
History suggests secondary inflation waves are common after major peaks, particularly when supply shocks persist.
AART research points to a higher risk of a “stagflation-light” environment, with a combination of moderately higher inflation and slower growth.

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Stagflation-light: A growing investment concern

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