Commentary

Third Quarter 2026 Quarterly Business Cycle Update

The global business cycle remains in an unsynchronized expansion.

By: Fidelity Asset Allocation Research Team

Updated: 7/17/2026

Key Takeaways

Positive earnings momentum, improving labor dynamics, easing credit conditions, and accommodative policy supported the fundamental backdrop
Growing demand for labor and a slowing supply of workers from tighter immigration policy kept the unemployment rate subdued
Consumer inflation rose, as a steady multiyear decline in shelter and services costs showed signs of reacceleration.

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Quarterly Business Cycle Update (Q3 2026)

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