Commentary

Wealthy consumers and tax refunds: Tailwinds for 2026

The CMSG team believes the economy will accelerate in 2026, and we’ve advocated for a broadening market with expanded asset allocation.

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The CMSG team believes the economy will accelerate in 2026, and we’ve advocated for a broadening market with expanded asset allocation. We believe U.S. consumers are a durable pillar of this economy—and with a major tax-refund tailwind now approaching, consumers’ bolstered capacity to spend strengthens our belief for the 2026 economic outlook. In related news, the U.S. economy has continued to shrug off lukewarm jobs reports (most recently, Friday’s release was delayed due to last week’s partial government shutdown). It isn’t simple to reach a binary conclusion on whether the eventual jobs data is "bad" or "good" for consumer spending. Job gains have been sideways since April 2025, and the unemployment rate has remained similarly static—yet the economy has accelerated. While job and income gains are important, the relative wealth of consumers is becoming a more significant factor for their propensity to consume.

Consumer spending accounts for 68% of U.S. GDP
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, BEA.gov, as of 9/30/25.

A wealth-supported consumer base

Higher-income households remain the primary driver of total spending, a continuation of the K-shaped consumer environment that has defined the post-pandemic cycle. These households have benefited the most from rising asset prices in equities, real estate, and money market holdings–and they continue to spend. This dynamic reinforces a key macro theme: as long as wealthier households continue to experience elevated asset values, aggregate consumer spending retains a durable floor. The top 10% of income earners hold nearly three-quarters of the aggregate U.S. household net worth.1

Why consumer wealth still translates to spending power

Even in a benign labor market, the wealth effect remains meaningful. Elevated home equity, strong retirement account balances, and multiyear gains in financial assets all provide consumers with ample support to maintain or increase spending. The combination of wealth stability and easing inflation is likely to strengthen real purchasing power in 2026.

U.S. household net worth has doubled in the past 10 years, growing from $85T in 2015 to $176T in 2025
Source: FRED Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, as of 6/30/2025.

A new catalyst: The 2026 tax-refund surge (OBB/OB3*)

The most immediate and powerful near-term boost to consumption is poised to come from significantly larger federal tax refunds, which are expected to reach $517.3 billion, up from $359.3 billion in 2025.2 This may result in one of the largest tax-refund seasons in U.S. history, with refund payments projected to rise approximately $1,000 per filer on average.

Refund size will be directly fed by new provisions such as no tax on tips, overtime, or auto loan interest, along with a higher standard deduction and a major expansion of SALT deductibility. As a result, millions of households will likely see meaningful increases in disposable cash early in Q1 and Q2.

The spending implications

Refund season is historically one of the strongest periods for discretionary consumption—including travel, durable goods, entertainment, home improvement, and financial catch-up behavior (debt paydown and savings). Larger-than-usual refunds could amplify this effect.

Top of mind for investors: How does wealth vs. labor income affect consumption?

While labor income is a disproportionate factor for consumption, it continues to decelerate as wealth accelerates. The wealth effect is becoming a bigger factor in determining consumers’ propensity for consumption.

Factors influencing potential consumption