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Insight & Outlook: Fidelity Market Signals Weekly
Introducing new weekly insights from Fidelity Institutional's (FI) Capital Markets Strategy Group covering the latest market trends, economic developments, and key factors shaping investment decisions—all to help you and your clients navigate the markets with confidence.
Davos buzz, Fed uncertainty: Investors focus on fundamentals as leadership widens
Week in Review
Noteworthy: The ebb and flow of U.S. policy noise and the administration’s intentions regarding Greenland and potential tariffs proved to be another example of why investors should not lose sight of the consistency in economic and corporate fundamentals. Despite global economic uncertainty dating to the early days of Covid, markets have continued to trend higher amid increased noise. For investors, the big takeaway from last week’s meeting of global leaders in Davos, Switzerland, is not to overreact to initial, noise-driven jolts to equity markets.
Monetary policy: Traders currently assign a 97% probability that the Fed will hold rates unchanged at its Wednesday meeting, with policymakers weighing mixed labor market signals against inflation that remains above target. However, political tension persists surrounding the Fed. The Trump administration is expected to nominate a replacement for Fed Chair Jerome Powell by the end of January, adding uncertainty as markets wait for the Department of Justice subpoenas involving Powell and other Fed officials to play out. To date, these Fed tensions have produced muted market reaction given the early stage of the process and a lack of clarity on how it will all unfold.
Top of mind for investors: How did last week’s events alter the outlook for economic and fundamental strength?
Markets are awaiting a wave of corporate earnings in the coming weeks, while concerns over a renewed global trade war remain top of mind. While geopolitical and policy risks may heighten market volatility, they do not diminish our expectations for continued economic progress and robust corporate earnings. In that context, we view last week’s developments regarding Greenland and potential tariffs as temporary disruptions rather than threats to our broader outlook. While fundamentals remain strong, there may be challenges ahead. In this environment, investors are best served by staying patient, disciplined, and well‑diversified.
Capital Markets Strategy Group (CMSG) Views
Market broadening potential: Growth remains solid, supported by a still healthy labor market, improving manufacturing activity, and AI-related CAPEX.1 Corporate fundamentals are strong, policy remains supportive, and global activity has momentum. We expect steady but uneven upside in risk assets, with opportunities in:
- Cyclicals and small and mid cap stocks: Due to easing financial conditions, improving domestic growth signals, and more attractive relative valuations.
- High-quality international equities: Due to continued earnings momentum, U.S. dollar softness, and supportive policy backdrops.
- Intermediate duration U.S. Treasuries/core bonds: Due to benefit from curve steepening, attractive yields, and historically tight credit spreads.
- Real assets and commodities: Due to their role as a potential hedge against inflation, geopolitical risk, and fiscal uncertainty. The supply and demand backdrop was also favorable.
Chart spotlight: Market leadership is beginning to broaden
The chart below illustrates a key shift underway in U.S. equities: Earnings growth expectations are no longer being driven solely by the large tech stocks known as the Magnificent Seven (Mag 7). While the largest tech-enabled leaders continue to show strong projected earnings per share (EPS) gains for 2026 and 2027, the S&P 500 excluding the Mag 7 is steadily improving, with future growth estimates rising throughout 2025 and into 2026.
The upward slope in the ex-Mag 7 signals that the rest of the market is starting to participate more meaningfully, supported by improving fundamentals, easing financial conditions, and increased visibility across cyclical sectors. In contrast to early 2025 softness, estimates for the broader index have firmed throughout the year—an important indicator that earnings breadth is expanding.
For investors, this widening earnings contribution suggests a market environment less reliant on a handful of mega-caps and more reflective of broad-based economic resilience, reinforcing opportunities in small and mid cap stocks, industrials, financials, energy, and other cyclical large cap sectors as leadership gradually rotates.
U.S. equity earnings growth expectations
Calendar-year EPS growth
| 2025 | 2026e | 2027e | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mag 7 | 26% | 18% | 18% |
| S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 | 8% | 13% | 13% |
Mag 7 includes Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla. Earnings estimates from the Street for 2026/2027. Sources: Bloomberg Financial LP, Fidelity Investments (AART), as of 12/31/25.
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Meet the FI Capital Markets and Asset Class Specialist teams
The FI Capital Markets Strategy Group synthesizes economic analysis and market outlooks from across Fidelity to provide timely, actionable perspectives for financial advisors and institutional investors. Our Asset Class Specialist team offers in-depth analysis and positioning views focused on equity, fixed income, and alternative investments, including a range of ETF offerings.
Views expressed are as of the date indicated, based on the information available at that time, and may change based on market and other conditions. Unless otherwise noted, the opinions provided are those of the authors and not necessarily those of Fidelity Investments or its affiliates. Fidelity does not assume any duty to update any of the information.
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These materials are provided for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as a recommendation of any security, sector, or investment strategy.
All indices are unmanaged and performance of the indices includes reinvestment of dividends and interest income, unless otherwise noted, are not illustrative of any particular investment, and an investment cannot be made in any index.
This content contains statements that are "forward-looking statements," which are based upon certain assumptions of future events. Actual events are difficult to predict and may differ from those assumed. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will materialize, or that actual results will not be materially different from those presented.
S&P 500 index is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stocks chosen for market size, liquidity, and industry group representation to represent U.S. equity performance. S&P 500 is a registered service mark of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC.
Sectors and Industries are defined by Global Industry Classification Standards (GICS®), except where noted otherwise. S&P 500 sectors: Consumer Discretionary—companies that tend to be the most sensitive to economic cycles. Consumer Staples—companies whose businesses are less sensitive to economic cycles. Energy—companies whose businesses are dominated by either of the following activities: the construction or provision of oil rigs, drilling equipment, and other energy-related services and equipment; or the exploration, production, marketing, refining, and/or transportation of oil and gas products, coal, and consumable fuels. Financials—companies involved in activities such as banking, consumer finance, investment banking and brokerage, asset management, insurance and investments, and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs). Health Care—companies in two main industry groups: health care equipment suppliers, manufacturers, and providers of health care services; and companies involved in research, development, production, and marketing of pharmaceuticals and biotechnology products. Industrials—companies that manufacture and distribute capital goods, provide commercial services and supplies, or provide transportation services. Information Technology—companies in technology software and services and technology hardware and equipment. Materials—companies that engage in a wide range of commodity-related manufacturing. Real Estate—companies in real estate development, operations, and related services, as well as equity REITs. Communication Services—companies that facilitate communication and offer related content through various media. Utilities—companies considered electric, gas, or water utilities, or that operate as independent producers and/or distributors of power.
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