SERIES

Insight & Outlook: Fidelity Market Signals Weekly

Introducing new weekly insights from Fidelity Institutional's (FI) Capital Markets Strategy Group covering the latest market trends, economic developments, and key factors shaping investment decisions—all to help you and your clients navigate the markets with confidence.

Davos buzz, Fed uncertainty: Investors focus on fundamentals as leadership widens

Week in Review

Noteworthy: The ebb and flow of U.S. policy noise and the administration’s intentions regarding Greenland and potential tariffs proved to be another example of why investors should not lose sight of the consistency in economic and corporate fundamentals. Despite global economic uncertainty dating to the early days of Covid, markets have continued to trend higher amid increased noise. For investors, the big takeaway from last week’s meeting of global leaders in Davos, Switzerland, is not to overreact to initial, noise-driven jolts to equity markets.

Monetary policy: Traders currently assign a 97% probability that the Fed will hold rates unchanged at its Wednesday meeting, with policymakers weighing mixed labor market signals against inflation that remains above target. However, political tension persists surrounding the Fed. The Trump administration is expected to nominate a replacement for Fed Chair Jerome Powell by the end of January, adding uncertainty as markets wait for the Department of Justice subpoenas involving Powell and other Fed officials to play out. To date, these Fed tensions have produced muted market reaction given the early stage of the process and a lack of clarity on how it will all unfold.

Top of mind for investors: How did last week’s events alter the outlook for economic and fundamental strength?

Markets are awaiting a wave of corporate earnings in the coming weeks, while concerns over a renewed global trade war remain top of mind. While geopolitical and policy risks may heighten market volatility, they do not diminish our expectations for continued economic progress and robust corporate earnings. In that context, we view last week’s developments regarding Greenland and potential tariffs as temporary disruptions rather than threats to our broader outlook. While fundamentals remain strong, there may be challenges ahead. In this environment, investors are best served by staying patient, disciplined, and well‑diversified.

Capital Markets Strategy Group (CMSG) Views

Market broadening potential: Growth remains solid, supported by a still healthy labor market, improving manufacturing activity, and AI-related CAPEX.1 Corporate fundamentals are strong, policy remains supportive, and global activity has momentum. We expect steady but uneven upside in risk assets, with opportunities in:

  • Cyclicals and small and mid cap stocks: Due to easing financial conditions, improving domestic growth signals, and more attractive relative valuations.
  • High-quality international equities: Due to continued earnings momentum, U.S. dollar softness, and supportive policy backdrops.
  • Intermediate duration U.S. Treasuries/core bonds: Due to benefit from curve steepening, attractive yields, and historically tight credit spreads.
  • Real assets and commodities: Due to their role as a potential hedge against inflation, geopolitical risk, and fiscal uncertainty. The supply and demand backdrop was also favorable.

Chart spotlight: Market leadership is beginning to broaden

The chart below illustrates a key shift underway in U.S. equities: Earnings growth expectations are no longer being driven solely by the large tech stocks known as the Magnificent Seven (Mag 7). While the largest tech-enabled leaders continue to show strong projected earnings per share (EPS) gains for 2026 and 2027, the S&P 500 excluding the Mag 7 is steadily improving, with future growth estimates rising throughout 2025 and into 2026.

The upward slope in the ex-Mag 7 signals that the rest of the market is starting to participate more meaningfully, supported by improving fundamentals, easing financial conditions, and increased visibility across cyclical sectors. In contrast to early 2025 softness, estimates for the broader index have firmed throughout the year—an important indicator that earnings breadth is expanding.

For investors, this widening earnings contribution suggests a market environment less reliant on a handful of mega-caps and more reflective of broad-based economic resilience, reinforcing opportunities in small and mid cap stocks, industrials, financials, energy, and other cyclical large cap sectors as leadership gradually rotates.

U.S. equity earnings growth expectations

Calendar-year EPS growth

2025 2026e 2027e
Mag 7 26% 18% 18%
S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 8% 13% 13%


Meet the FI Capital Markets and Asset Class Specialist teams

The FI Capital Markets Strategy Group synthesizes economic analysis and market outlooks from across Fidelity to provide timely, actionable perspectives for financial advisors and institutional investors. Our Asset Class Specialist team offers in-depth analysis and positioning views focused on equity, fixed income, and alternative investments, including a range of ETF offerings.

Michael Scarsciotti
SVP, Head of Investment Specialists
Brad Pineault
Vice President, Head of Capital Market Strategists
David Delleo
Vice President, Investment Insights
Mehernosh Engineer
Vice President, Capital Markets Strategy
Anu Gaggar
Vice President, Capital Markets Strategy
Seth Marks
Vice President, Capital Markets Strategist
Bryan Sajjadi
Vice President, Capital Markets Strategist