Investing in an era of animal spirits
What history can tell us about the current state of the markets.
- “Animal spirits” have driven most of the gains for the U.S. stock market in the recent past, which could be a bullish signal for equity gains in the coming 12 months, according to a historical analysis.
- Past periods of animal spirits that drove the stock market tended to point to durable earnings growth in future years—even when stocks were expensive.
- Growth-oriented cyclical sectors have tended to perform meaningfully better than defensive sectors in past periods of animal spirits from both a returns and earning perspective.
- Wide valuations spreads, which are present early in 2025, have resulted in below-average market volatility and higher risk-adjusted returns in the past.
- Historically, an environment of trade-policy uncertainty also has tended to drive a higher risk-adjusted return for the S&P 500® index.

Next steps to consider
Domestic Equity
Target your clients’ investment needs with our broad lineup of domestic equity solutions.
Learn more
Quantitative Investing
Find out how a blend of human insight, data, and technology can help uncover opportunity for your clients.
Learn more
Asset Allocation Research Team (AART)
Access economic, fundamental, and quantitative analysis from our Asset Allocation Research Team.
Learn more