Welcome
Billy Dietze: Welcome to Insight and Outlook special edition, the audio magazine for financial advisors. My name is Billy Dietz and I'm the host here at Fidelity. As we continue into 2026, we're excited to bring you the second issue filled with the latest insights from Fidelity, all in a quick, convenient, short form audio experience.
In each issue of special edition, we curate insights from some of the leading portfolio managers, investment analysts, and practice management specialists to bring advisors our freshest takes on the market in actionable insights to improve your business.
Think of this as a playlist of our top expertise. You can listen to the articles that grab your attention first or consume this entire issue all the way through. This episode features four articles, a conversation about how direct lending is changing portfolio strategies. Then a look at some intriguing results from a survey we conducted into younger generation's views toward financial advisors. We've also prepared overviews on a few equity sectors to follow over the year. But to start things off, let's tackle the five big questions advisors have for 2026.
Our experts at Fidelity are finding a few reasons for advisors to be optimistic about the markets. As we wade into 2026, the economy is growing at a solid clip. The stock market has maintained its momentum. The Fed has shifted into easing mode and companies are spending more on big projects. That's not to mention we're in the middle of a historic tech transformation driven by artificial intelligence.
Put all these together and our analysts are feeling generally optimistic that companies can boost profit margins and deliver strong earnings growth this year. That said, as always, there are reasons for advisors to be vigilant. Inflation has been stickyand the labor market appears to be coolingadd in policy uncertainty, concerned about elevated stock valuations, record levels of public debt, and it's safe to say that navigating the equity landscape through the rest of this year won't be so straightforward. To help sort all of that out, I'm excited to welcome Jake Weinstein, senior vice president on our asset allocation research team to go deeper on the team's economic and market outlook.
Hi Jake, welcome to Insight and Outlook special edition.
Jake Weinstein: Hi Billy, thanks for having me. I’m very excited here to join you for the issue. So let's dive in and discuss the market outlook.
Billy Dietze: And before we get started, can you tell the listeners a little bit more about the asset allocation research team? A A R T?
Jake Weinstein: Yeah, sure. So, “AART” is a team within Fidelity that conducts fundamental and quantitative research. It helps develop asset allocation recommendations for our portfolio managers and investment teams. A big part of that's keeping an eye on macroeconomic and policy trends and analyzing their potential impact on portfolios. We provide timely updates including our quarterly market update and that helps give a comprehensive overview of what we're seeing.
Billy Dietze: That's a helpful introduction. Alright, let's get into it then. What are you thinking about the relationship between policy uncertainty and market volatility? Historically, more uncertainty generally meant more volatility, and in the first half of 2025 that held true in the second half. We continue to see a lot of policy uncertainty, however, volatility mostly subsided that created one of the widest gaps between policy uncertainty and market volatility in the last 30 years. Do you think this gap is going to continue to grow in 2026?
Jake Weinstein: Yeah, so let's dive right in here and, and my short answer is probably not. It's, possible that this could be a good thing. Maybe uncertainty continues to decline. Maybe markets stay pretty calm, but, but that gap you talked about could just as easily close from the other direction with volatility picking up if some big policy issues don't get resolved and there's a lot on that list.
Back in October, US and China struck a deal covering tariffs, rare earth exports, soybean purchases among other things. But the economic tension between the two economic powers is it's far from settled and we're also keeping an eye on the ongoing negotiations to renew the US-Mexico-Canada agreement on trade ongoing US oil sanctions and other measures to try to end the war in Ukraine amongst some other recent updates we've seen in Venezuela. So any movement on these fronts could drive market volatility as we move further into the year.
Billy Dietze: Alright, and let's explore another trend from last year. The weakening US dollar, the dollar lost ground in 2025 and international stocks outperformed US stocks. That's a big shift, especially considering just how strong the dollar had been over the last decade or so and how much US stocks had outperformed their international peers.
Jake Weinstein: Yeah, so that's definitely a big question for us this year, Billy something we've been talking amongst the team for quite some, some time, not even just last year, but even before last year in recent history, after the dollar declines by that much it, it would suggest that dollar weakening has unlikely continue because over the past two decades if the dollar has fallen by that much, typically the next year it has bounced back.
But it's really hard to say if that's going to happen this year, it's possible US economic and corporate momentum will give the dollar a boost. But it's also possible foreign investors will decide to hold back a bit and keep more of their money at home.
Billy Dietze: Now that's interesting. Why do you say that?
Jake Weinstein: Well, some investors may be uneasy about the shifts in US trade or foreign policy. Others may be seeing early signs of structural improvements in their own markets that make non-US assets more appealing. So let's look at Asia for an example. For years, US companies had certain vantages over Asian companies, especially when it came to rewarding shareholders through say dividends, share buybacks, things like that. And that's one of the reasons the return on equity historically has run higher in the US than abroad.
But recently more Asian countries have been prioritizing stronger corporate governance with Japan leading the charge, also seeing it in South Korea. And as a result non-US equities, they've been narrowing the gap in total payouts compared with their US counterparts. So if that trend were to continue into 2026, it would make non-US equities attractive on a relative basis even if uncertainty declines from here.
Billy Dietze: Got it. We'll be watching the dollar very closely this year. So let's shift gears and dig into a phenomenon that's been driving US stocks, the AI boom stock pricesof AI focused tech companies have led the capital spending build out and do you see this continuing in 2026?
Jake Weinstein: Yeah, well everybody wants to talk about AI, Billy, and it's for good reason. I mean, if we look back though, at past technological shifts we see a similar pattern and that's what we're trying to focus on here as we think about AI CapEx and the overall boom that we've seen over the past couple of years.
So the typical pattern is excitement builds investment surges, stock prices rise sharply and eventually things overheat. But that usually leads to a market pullback and also sets the stage though for a big payoff over the longer term. And then innovation becomes more widely adopted and it could help spark longer term productivity gains across the economy, which would then be geared into the economy over the next market cycle.
But when you look at that data now and compare it to those historical episodes, we're really not expecting that big AI driven productivity boost right away. The current surge we've seen in capital spending you're going to get, combine that with lower taxes, stronger corporate cash flow and this could really be more of a near term boost and that could ultimately help support analysts expectations for roughly 13% profit growth this year with a lot of that coming from investment in AI.
But that earnings growth expectation as strong as it is, it's even higher than it was from the 11% earnings growth we got in 2025.
Billy Dietze: Okay. So, these tech stocks really drove the market last year and it created a split of sorts, a strong market, but an economy that many people had concerns about. Let's talk about the stock market's effect on the economy as a whole and how big of a role market performance may have in the economy in the year ahead.
Jake Weinstein: Yeah, so I, I'm anticipating it'll be even a larger impact compared to prior cycles and that's because American consumers, they're more invested in the stock market than ever before. And at the same time, inequality and wealth and income is among the wisest it's been in US history.
When you look at US consumers, so like a majority of the spending that people are making, it's, it's coming from older, wealthier consumers and older consumers, they, they tend to rely more on their accumulated wealth, not just their paychecks to fund their spending. And that means that wealth's playing a bigger role in driving overall economic activity.
So even if wage is still the main source of spending for most households, wealth is becoming a bit more important. So here's where it gets interesting. Stock prices can swing a lot faster than labor income. So if the market were to drop and had probably stay down for a while, that alone could slow economic growth by slowing down consumption even if the job market were to hold up.
So the flip side is also true, you gotta think about though is if a strong stock market, more gains from here could ultimately give consumer spending a lift, even if hiring or wage growth is a bit sluggish.
Billy Dietze: And this possible extra volatility consumer spending might happen in the context of an additional factor, inflation. Can't talk about 2026 without covering your outlook for inflation, Jake.
Jake Weinstein: Yeah, so 2026 probably isn't as exciting about inflation as it was in 2023, 2024, 2025. But people still want to hear it.and I think it's important to hear what our outlook is. And our team expects inflation to hover around and even rise above 3% over the course of the next 12 months. And that is really contingent upon the economy staying strong.
That level of 3%, it's higher than both the market's expectation and the federal reserve's expectations. So, we could perhaps start to see some cooling in areas that have been stubbornly expensive, things like rents and housing, but at the same time goods inflation's been ticking up as companies have been able to pass along tariffs through to the end consumers.
And so if you combine that with everything like the uncertain outlook for commodities, there's a lot of moving factors. You put that together and the Fed may ultimately be easing monetary policy in an environment where financial conditions are already loose and inflation is still running above its target. So, this is constructive for markets in the near term, but it may lead to unintended consequences several years down the road.
And so, I also do want to note that there's a big shift coming by the Fed itself. By May we're probably going to have a new chair at the Fed, different set of voting members and if the fed cuts rates and that conflicts with the inflation data that we're seeing and doesn't line up as neatly as maybe as the administration would be hoping, as it's hoping for lower rates, we could see markets start to question just how independent the fed's decisions really are.
Billy Dietze: That's a lot to keep an eye on for sure. Alright, so before we close this out, we gotta talk bonds. How could all of this affect bond yields for the year?
Jake Weinstein: Yeah, so that's a big question as well. And if you think about long-term bonds, just keep it real simple. The things that influence them are long-term growth expectations, long-term inflation expectations, but also the credibility of monetary and fiscal policy makers, which really hasn't come into question in the several last several decades. Which, in terms of when I've been in the business now, if investors start doubting policymaker's commitment to fighting inflation or pushing fiscal deficits even higher from here, we'd probably see it show up as a steeper yield curve with longer term yields, rising higher above short-term yields or short-term yields falling further below.
Long-term yields are depending on what the Fed does they year, and this is what puts the fed at a tough spot because they won't be able to control interest rates as well as they have been able to over the past couple of decades and they'll have to manage inflation expectations carefully, especially with government debt sitting near record highs.
Billy Dietze: Well, you've given us a lot to look out for in the year ahead, Jake. Let's close out with your big picture outlook for advisors for 2026. Jake Weinstein: Alright, happy to Billy. So for 2026, we think the macroeconomic environment appears solid for the year. Several about macro dynamics, though they could ultimately be shifting with changes in AI driven productivity, presenting potential opportunities for investors. But considering everything going on, we're pretty optimistic heading into the year now.
At the same time, there's always risk out there and that could challenge market stability. Investors are going to have to deal with uncertainty in things like high equity valuations, geopolitical tensions, stubborn inflation. So we encourage advisors to keep an eye both on cyclical trends and longer term regime transformations such as peaking globalizations, peaking US exceptionalism, and high secular inflation. All these things can influence market leadership on a multi-year basis.
Billy Dietze: That's terrific. Thanks for the wrap up, Jake, and appreciate you taking us through your views of 2026.
Jake Weinstein: My pleasure, Billy. Thanks for having me.
Billy Dietze: If you want to learn more about Fidelity's outlook for 2026, check out the full report, lower down on the webpage. It's also in the description box if you're listing on YouTube.
[MUSIC PLAYING]