Commentary

Potential implications of SCOTUS ruling on tariffs

Overview of the potential implications for markets and the economy.

By: FI Capital Markets Strategy Group

Updated: 2/20/2026

Key Takeaways

Markets may see a “relief rally” initially, with expectations of a tariff refund process to eventually get underway where the U.S. would be required to pay back the additional tariff revenue. Refunds in this case could act as a fiscal stimulus, supporting the economy in 2026.
But uncertainty is likely to continue, and markets may begin to price in potentially higher inflation and interest rates over the longer term.
Consumers and corporations may see a positive offset to potentially higher inflation from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OB3) fiscal policy and tax cuts in 2026.
Strong fundamental earnings growth for the S&P 500, expected to be in the mid-teens for 2026 regardless of how the court ruled, could be another counterweight.
Monetary conditions are generally accommodative. The 175 basis points of rate cuts already implemented continue to support economic growth in 2026, while uncertainty remains about the path of the Fed in 2026 and a new Chairman in May.

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