Business Cycle Update

First Quarter 2024

Global business cycle in less synchronized expansion

Many major economies, including the U.S., remained in the late-cycle expansion phase. Global crosswinds included evidence of solid service activity but restrictive monetary policies in many developed economies. The global monetary tightening cycle appears to be over, but the pace and magnitude of easing remains uncertain. China remained an outlier, as it continued to ease policy in hopes of reaccelerating from its growth slump.

  • Activity rebounds (GDP, IP, employment, incomes)
  • Credit begins to grow
  • Profits grow rapidly
  • Policy still stimulative
  • Inventories low; sales improve
  • Growth peaking
  • Credit growth strong
  • Profit growth peaks
  • Policy neutral
  • Inventories, sales grow, equilibrium reached
  • Growth moderating
  • Credit tightens
  • Earnings under pressure
  • Policy contradictory
  • Inventories grow; sales growth falls
  • Falling activity
  • Credit drives up
  • Profits decline
  • Policy eases
  • Inventories; sales fall
BCU InflationaryPressuresRed =HighRelativePerformanceofEconomicallySensitiveAssetsGreen =Strong+EconomicGrowth-RECOVERYCONTRACTIONEXPANSION India, Mexico Japan U.S., Australia, Canada, Korea, Brazil Eurozone, UK China

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