Business Cycle Update

Second Quarter 2022

Global Expansion Intact but Facing Multiple Challenges

The global economic expansion continues, but the outlook for the world's major economies has become more complicated and differentiated. Most countries are in a maturing mid-cycle phase, and the near-term risk of recession in the U.S. remains low. COVID poses risks to China's recovery, but the economic reopening should boost Europe. The EU is most exposed to fallout from the war in Ukraine, including higher natural-gas prices.

  • Activity rebounds (GDP, IP, employment, incomes)
  • Credit begins to grow
  • Profits grow rapidly
  • Policy still stimulative
  • Inventories low; sales improve
  • Growth peaking
  • Credit growth strong
  • Profit growth peaks
  • Policy neutral
  • Inventories, sales grow, equilibrium reached
  • Growth moderating
  • Credit tightens
  • Earnings under pressure
  • Policy contradictory
  • Inventories grow; sales growth falls
  • Falling activity
  • Credit drives up
  • Profits decline
  • Policy eases
  • Inventories; sales fall
BCU InflationaryPressuresRed =HighRelativePerformanceofEconomicallySensitiveAssetsGreen =Strong+EconomicGrowth-RECOVERYCONTRACTIONEXPANSION U.K. Brazil, Mexico U.S., Canada Eurozone, Australia, Japan, Korea, India China

Additional Updates



There was an issue with your input


Please confirm