Business Cycle Update

First Quarter 2023

Elevated Global Recessionary Pressures to Begin 2023

Many major economies face maturing business-cycle trends due to persistent inflationary pressures, slowing industrial activity, and tightening monetary and financial conditions. The U.S. is in the late-cycle expansion phase, with a rising likelihood that a recession may be on the horizon in 2023. Europe has likely tipped into a recession, but China's lifting of COVID restrictions and policy stimulus offer hope for a 2023 upturn.

  • Activity rebounds (GDP, IP, employment, incomes)
  • Credit begins to grow
  • Profits grow rapidly
  • Policy still stimulative
  • Inventories low; sales improve
  • Growth peaking
  • Credit growth strong
  • Profit growth peaks
  • Policy neutral
  • Inventories, sales grow, equilibrium reached
  • Growth moderating
  • Credit tightens
  • Earnings under pressure
  • Policy contradictory
  • Inventories grow; sales growth falls
  • Falling activity
  • Credit drives up
  • Profits decline
  • Policy eases
  • Inventories; sales fall
BCU InflationaryPressuresRed =HighRelativePerformanceofEconomicallySensitiveAssetsGreen =Strong+EconomicGrowth-RECOVERYCONTRACTIONEXPANSION India, Mexico Australia, Brazil, Japan U.S., Canada, Korea U.K. Eurozone China

Additional Updates



There was an issue with your input


Please confirm