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Insight & Outlook: Fidelity Market Signals Weekly
Introducing new weekly insights from Fidelity Institutional's (FI) Capital Markets Strategy Group covering the latest market trends, economic developments, and key factors shaping investment decisions—all to help you and your clients navigate the markets with confidence.
Fed on hold, dollar on the move
What we're watching
Welcome to February, and the swirl of market news about the U.S. dollar, a jittery bond market in Japan, rising U.S. producer prices, and what a new Fed chair could mean for future policy direction.
As for the Fed, last week’s meeting arguably matters more right now than the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be its next chair. With the decision to hold steady on rates, it’s clear to us that the Fed is unlikely to provide any near-term market catalysts. Without labor or inflation showing any clear near-term directional trends, we think the Fed is back to data-watching before making its next move. Keep in mind, we’re unlikely to see Warsh take over until May.
In the interim, the market is likely to shift its attention to other potential catalysts, such as:
Consumer sentiment. Its last reading for 2025 neared the same level reached in 1979 (amid 11% inflation) and late 2008 (the global financial crisis). This sounds abysmal, but it might present an upside market catalyst if we see even a little incremental improvement. (An upcoming paper from our team, “Can two of the market’s red flags turn green?” will further explore this idea.)
Jobs. Were lower initial unemployment claims in December merely a holiday reprieve? Amazon cut 16,000 jobs last week. The intermediate trend remains to the downside, as 2025 marked one of the weakest years for jobs gains since 2020. However, upside surprises for the number of jobs added could change this narrative. Notably, “good” jobs numbers require far fewer new jobs than in past years due to constrained labor supply—a product of an aging workforce and reduced immigration.
Inflation. Here’s what you’re not hearing about inflation: The headline rate of 2.7% is likely being tamped down by productivity gains. U.S. labor productivity growth hit a two-year high in Q3 2025 (latest data), driven by AI. The degree to which this continues will likely be an important economic storyline for 2026 and beyond.
Top of mind for investors: What to make of the dollar’s slide
As of late last week, the dollar reached a four-year low relative to other developed-market currencies. Let’s skip the news-cycle hype and look at what it means for investors:
Easing financial conditions support a broader risk appetite
- Large cap U.S. equities benefit from significant foreign revenue exposure.
- A weaker dollar enhances the returns of non-U.S. equities for U.S. investors.
Chart spotlight: Historically, a weaker dollar has benefited developed- and emerging-market equities
Headlines about the dollar could distract from an opportunity: In the past, a falling dollar has strengthened the relative returns of both developed and emerging equity markets for two reasons: 1) A depreciating U.S. dollar amplifies returns on non-U.S. equities when translated back into dollars, and 2) about 40% of S&P 500 revenues originate overseas, and a weaker dollar boosts that revenue stream.
As shown in the chart below, annual average returns have been significantly higher in falling dollar environments than in rising dollar environments for S&P 500, MSCI EAFE, and MSCI EM indices. The takeaway: A softer dollar regime could favor technology and other S&P 500 sectors with meaningful non-U.S. earnings exposure, as well as selective international and EM allocations.
Average annual performance when U.S. dollar index (DXY) is rising and falling, 1988–2025
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Provides current themes and views of the Capital Markets Specialist Group within Fidelity Institutional, as of 1/31/25. Individual views or outlooks may differ. Views are not intended to be substitutes for strategic asset allocation and reflect market views based on current economic conditions. Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against a loss. The statements and opinions are subject to change at any time, based on market and other conditions. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. All indexes are unmanaged. Developed markets are represented by MSCI EAFE Net Total Return USD Index (the EAFE). Emerging markets (EM) are represented by the MSCI Emerging Net Total Return USD Index. U.S. is S&P 500. The dollar is represented by the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). Source: MSCI Company, S&P Global, Bloomberg, Macrobond, Fidelity Investments (AART), as of 12/31/25.
The ebb and flow of U.S. policy noise and the administration's intentions regarding Greenland and potential tariffs proved to be another example of why investors should not lose sight of the consistency in economic and corporate fundamentals.
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Meet the FI Capital Markets and Asset Class Specialist teams
The FI Capital Markets Strategy Group synthesizes economic analysis and market outlooks from across Fidelity to provide timely, actionable perspectives for financial advisors and institutional investors. Our Asset Class Specialist team offers in-depth analysis and positioning views focused on equity, fixed income, and alternative investments, including a range of ETF offerings.
1. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Macrobond, Fidelity Investments (AART), as of 9/30/25.
2. Source: IRS, U.S. House Committee on Ways & Means, as of 1/12/26.
* OBB/OB3 refers to the One Big Beautiful Bill/One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Views expressed are as of the date indicated, based on the information available at that time, and may change based on market and other conditions. Unless otherwise noted, the opinions provided are those of the authors and not necessarily those of Fidelity Investments or its affiliates. Fidelity does not assume any duty to update any of the information.
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These materials are provided for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as a recommendation of any security, sector, or investment strategy.
All indices are unmanaged and performance of the indices includes reinvestment of dividends and interest income, unless otherwise noted, are not illustrative of any particular investment, and an investment cannot be made in any index.
This content contains statements that are "forward-looking statements," which are based upon certain assumptions of future events. Actual events are difficult to predict and may differ from those assumed. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will materialize, or that actual results will not be materially different from those presented.
S&P 500 index is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stocks chosen for market size, liquidity, and industry group representation to represent U.S. equity performance. S&P 500 is a registered service mark of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC.
Sectors and Industries are defined by Global Industry Classification Standards (GICS®), except where noted otherwise. S&P 500 sectors: Consumer Discretionary—companies that tend to be the most sensitive to economic cycles. Consumer Staples—companies whose businesses are less sensitive to economic cycles. Energy—companies whose businesses are dominated by either of the following activities: the construction or provision of oil rigs, drilling equipment, and other energy-related services and equipment; or the exploration, production, marketing, refining, and/or transportation of oil and gas products, coal, and consumable fuels. Financials—companies involved in activities such as banking, consumer finance, investment banking and brokerage, asset management, insurance and investments, and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs). Health Care—companies in two main industry groups: health care equipment suppliers, manufacturers, and providers of health care services; and companies involved in research, development, production, and marketing of pharmaceuticals and biotechnology products. Industrials—companies that manufacture and distribute capital goods, provide commercial services and supplies, or provide transportation services. Information Technology—companies in technology software and services and technology hardware and equipment. Materials—companies that engage in a wide range of commodity-related manufacturing. Real Estate—companies in real estate development, operations, and related services, as well as equity REITs. Communication Services—companies that facilitate communication and offer related content through various media. Utilities—companies considered electric, gas, or water utilities, or that operate as independent producers and/or distributors of power.
Stock markets, especially foreign markets, are volatile and can decline significantly in response to adverse issuer, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments. Foreign securities are subject to interest rate, currency exchange rate, economic, and political risks, all of which are magnified in emerging markets.