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Insight & Outlook: Fidelity Market Signals Weekly

Introducing new weekly insights from Fidelity Institutional's (FI) Capital Markets Strategy Group covering the latest market trends, economic developments, and key factors shaping investment decisions—all to help you and your clients navigate the markets with confidence.

Fed on hold, dollar on the move

What we're watching

Welcome to February, and the swirl of market news about the U.S. dollar, a jittery bond market in Japan, rising U.S. producer prices, and what a new Fed chair could mean for future policy direction.

As for the Fed, last week’s meeting arguably matters more right now than the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be its next chair. With the decision to hold steady on rates, it’s clear to us that the Fed is unlikely to provide any near-term market catalysts. Without labor or inflation showing any clear near-term directional trends, we think the Fed is back to data-watching before making its next move. Keep in mind, we’re unlikely to see Warsh take over until May.

In the interim, the market is likely to shift its attention to other potential catalysts, such as:

Consumer sentiment. Its last reading for 2025 neared the same level reached in 1979 (amid 11% inflation) and late 2008 (the global financial crisis). This sounds abysmal, but it might present an upside market catalyst if we see even a little incremental improvement. (An upcoming paper from our team, “Can two of the market’s red flags turn green?” will further explore this idea.)

Jobs. Were lower initial unemployment claims in December merely a holiday reprieve? Amazon cut 16,000 jobs last week. The intermediate trend remains to the downside, as 2025 marked one of the weakest years for jobs gains since 2020. However, upside surprises for the number of jobs added could change this narrative. Notably, “good” jobs numbers require far fewer new jobs than in past years due to constrained labor supply—a product of an aging workforce and reduced immigration.

Inflation. Here’s what you’re not hearing about inflation: The headline rate of 2.7% is likely being tamped down by productivity gains. U.S. labor productivity growth hit a two-year high in Q3 2025 (latest data), driven by AI. The degree to which this continues will likely be an important economic storyline for 2026 and beyond.

Top of mind for investors: What to make of the dollar’s slide

As of late last week, the dollar reached a four-year low relative to other developed-market currencies. Let’s skip the news-cycle hype and look at what it means for investors:

Easing financial conditions support a broader risk appetite

  • Large cap U.S. equities benefit from significant foreign revenue exposure.
  • A weaker dollar enhances the returns of non-U.S. equities for U.S. investors.

Chart spotlight: Historically, a weaker dollar has benefited developed- and emerging-market equities

Headlines about the dollar could distract from an opportunity: In the past, a falling dollar has strengthened the relative returns of both developed and emerging equity markets for two reasons: 1) A depreciating U.S. dollar amplifies returns on non-U.S. equities when translated back into dollars, and 2) about 40% of S&P 500 revenues originate overseas, and a weaker dollar boosts that revenue stream.

As shown in the chart below, annual average returns have been significantly higher in falling dollar environments than in rising dollar environments for S&P 500, MSCI EAFE, and MSCI EM indices. The takeaway: A softer dollar regime could favor technology and other S&P 500 sectors with meaningful non-U.S. earnings exposure, as well as selective international and EM allocations.

Average annual performance when U.S. dollar index (DXY) is rising and falling, 1988–2025


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Meet the FI Capital Markets and Asset Class Specialist teams

The FI Capital Markets Strategy Group synthesizes economic analysis and market outlooks from across Fidelity to provide timely, actionable perspectives for financial advisors and institutional investors. Our Asset Class Specialist team offers in-depth analysis and positioning views focused on equity, fixed income, and alternative investments, including a range of ETF offerings.

Michael Scarsciotti
SVP, Head of Investment Specialists
Brad Pineault
Vice President, Head of Capital Market Strategists
David Delleo
Vice President, Investment Insights
Mehernosh Engineer
Vice President, Capital Markets Strategy
Anu Gaggar
Vice President, Capital Markets Strategy
Seth Marks
Vice President, Capital Markets Strategist
Bryan Sajjadi
Vice President, Capital Markets Strategist